Thu, 18 May 2023
1.Generalised likelihood profiles for models with intractable likelihoods
Authors:David J. Warne Queensland University of Technology, Oliver J. Maclaren University of Auckland, Elliot J. Carr Queensland University of Technology, Matthew J. Simpson Queensland University of Technology, Christpher Drovandi University of Auckland
Abstract: Likelihood profiling is an efficient and powerful frequentist approach for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and practical identifiablity analysis. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be easily applied for stochastic models without a tractable likelihood function. Such models are typical in many fields of science, rendering these classical approaches impractical in these settings. To address this limitation, we develop a new approach to generalising the methods of likelihood profiling for situations when the likelihood cannot be evaluated but stochastic simulations of the assumed data generating process are possible. Our approach is based upon recasting developments from generalised Bayesian inference into a frequentist setting. We derive a method for constructing generalised likelihood profiles and calibrating these profiles to achieve desired frequentist coverage for a given coverage level. We demonstrate the performance of our method on realistic examples from the literature and highlight the capability of our approach for the purpose of practical identifability analysis for models with intractable likelihoods.
2.Modeling Interference Using Experiment Roll-out
Authors:Ariel Boyarsky, Hongseok Namkoong, Jean Pouget-Abadie
Abstract: Experiments on online marketplaces and social networks suffer from interference, where the outcome of a unit is impacted by the treatment status of other units. We propose a framework for modeling interference using a ubiquitous deployment mechanism for experiments, staggered roll-out designs, which slowly increase the fraction of units exposed to the treatment to mitigate any unanticipated adverse side effects. Our main idea is to leverage the temporal variations in treatment assignments introduced by roll-outs to model the interference structure. We first present a set of model identification conditions under which the estimation of common estimands is possible and show how these conditions are aided by roll-out designs. Since there are often multiple competing models of interference in practice, we then develop a model selection method that evaluates models based on their ability to explain outcome variation observed along the roll-out. Through simulations, we show that our heuristic model selection method, Leave-One-Period-Out, outperforms other baselines. We conclude with a set of considerations, robustness checks, and potential limitations for practitioners wishing to use our framework.
3.Bayesian predictive probability based on a bivariate index vector for single-arm phase II study with binary efficacy and safety endpoints
Authors:Takuya Yoshimoto, Satoru Shinoda, Kouji Yamamoto, Kouji Tahata
Abstract: In oncology, phase II studies are crucial for clinical development plans, as they identify potent agents with sufficient activity to continue development in the subsequent phase III trials. Traditionally, phase II studies are single-arm studies, with an endpoint of treatment efficacy in the short-term. However, drug safety is also an important consideration. Thus, in the context of such multiple outcome design, predictive probabilities-based Bayesian monitoring strategies have been developed to assess if a clinical trial will show a conclusive result at the planned end of the study. In this paper, we propose a new simple index vector for summarizing the results that cannot be captured by existing strategies. Specifically, for each interim monitoring time point, we calculate the Bayesian predictive probability using our new index, and use it to assign a go/no-go decision. Finally, simulation studies are performed to evaluate the operating characteristics of the design. This analysis demonstrates that the proposed method makes appropriate interim go/no-go decisions.
4.Robust inference of causality in high-dimensional dynamical processes from the Information Imbalance of distance ranks
Authors:Vittorio Del Tatto, Gianfranco Fortunato, Domenica Bueti, Alessandro Laio
Abstract: We introduce an approach which allows inferring causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Our method builds on the ideas of Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, but overcomes most of their limitations. Specifically, our approach tests whether the predictability of a putative driven system Y can be improved by incorporating information from a potential driver system X, without making assumptions on the underlying dynamics and without the need to compute probability densities of the dynamic variables. Causality is assessed by a rigorous variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a recently developed statistical test capable of inferring the relative information content of different distance measures. This framework makes causality detection possible even for high-dimensional systems where only few of the variables are known or measured. Benchmark tests on coupled dynamical systems demonstrate that our approach outperforms other model-free causality detection methods, successfully handling both unidirectional and bidirectional couplings, and it is capable of detecting the arrow of time when present. We also show that the method can be used to robustly detect causality in electroencephalography data in humans.
5.Multi-scale wavelet coherence with its applications
Authors:Haibo Wu King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia, MI Knight University of York, UK, H Ombao King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia
Abstract: The goal in this paper is to develop a novel statistical approach to characterize functional interactions between channels in a brain network. Wavelets are effective for capturing transient properties of non-stationary signals because they have compact support that can be compressed or stretched according to the dynamic properties of the signal. Wavelets give a multi-scale decomposition of signals and thus can be few for studying potential cross-scale interactions between signals. To achieve this, we develop the scale-specific sub-processes of a multivariate locally stationary wavelet stochastic process. Under this proposed framework, a novel cross-scale dependence measure is developed. This provides a measure for dependence structure of components at different scales of multivariate time series. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate that the theoretical properties hold in practice. The proposed cross-scale analysis is applied to the electroencephalogram (EEG) data to study alterations in the functional connectivity structure in children diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Our approach identified novel interesting cross-scale interactions between channels in the brain network. The proposed framework can be applied to other signals, which can also capture the statistical association between the stocks at different time scales.
6.More powerful multiple testing under dependence via randomization
Authors:Ziyu Xu, Aaditya Ramdas
Abstract: We show that two procedures for false discovery rate (FDR) control -- the Benjamini-Yekutieli (BY) procedure for dependent p-values, and the e-Benjamini-Hochberg (e-BH) procedure for dependent e-values -- can both be improved by a simple randomization involving one independent uniform random variable. As a corollary, the Simes test under arbitrary dependence is also improved. Importantly, our randomized improvements are never worse than the originals, and typically strictly more powerful, with marked improvements in simulations. The same techniques also improve essentially every other multiple testing procedure based on e-values.
7.On true versus estimated propensity scores for treatment effect estimation with discrete controls
Authors:Andrew Herren, P. Richard Hahn
Abstract: The finite sample variance of an inverse propensity weighted estimator is derived in the case of discrete control variables with finite support. The obtained expressions generally corroborate widely-cited asymptotic theory showing that estimated propensity scores are superior to true propensity scores in the context of inverse propensity weighting. However, similar analysis of a modified estimator demonstrates that foreknowledge of the true propensity function can confer a statistical advantage when estimating average treatment effects.