Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Abstract: The Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) are popularly used to approximate Bayesian posterior distributions in statistical learning procedures with large-scale data. As opposed to many usual Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, SGLD is not stationary with respect to the posterior distribution; two sources of error appear: The first error is introduced by an Euler--Maruyama discretisation of a Langevin diffusion process, the second error comes from the data subsampling that enables its use in large-scale data settings. In this work, we consider an idealised version of SGLD to analyse the method's pure subsampling error that we then see as a best-case error for diffusion-based subsampling MCMC methods. Indeed, we introduce and study the Stochastic Gradient Langevin Diffusion (SGLDiff), a continuous-time Markov process that follows the Langevin diffusion corresponding to a data subset and switches this data subset after exponential waiting times. There, we show that the Wasserstein distance between the posterior and the limiting distribution of SGLDiff is bounded above by a fractional power of the mean waiting time. Importantly, this fractional power does not depend on the dimension of the state space. We bring our results into context with other analyses of SGLD.

Abstract: The success of over-parameterized neural networks trained to near-zero training error has caused great interest in the phenomenon of benign overfitting, where estimators are statistically consistent even though they interpolate noisy training data. While benign overfitting in fixed dimension has been established for some learning methods, current literature suggests that for regression with typical kernel methods and wide neural networks, benign overfitting requires a high-dimensional setting where the dimension grows with the sample size. In this paper, we show that the smoothness of the estimators, and not the dimension, is the key: benign overfitting is possible if and only if the estimator's derivatives are large enough. We generalize existing inconsistency results to non-interpolating models and more kernels to show that benign overfitting with moderate derivatives is impossible in fixed dimension. Conversely, we show that benign overfitting is possible for regression with a sequence of spiky-smooth kernels with large derivatives. Using neural tangent kernels, we translate our results to wide neural networks. We prove that while infinite-width networks do not overfit benignly with the ReLU activation, this can be fixed by adding small high-frequency fluctuations to the activation function. Our experiments verify that such neural networks, while overfitting, can indeed generalize well even on low-dimensional data sets.