Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: In this paper, we describe a method for estimating the joint probability density from data samples by assuming that the underlying distribution can be decomposed as a mixture of product densities with few mixture components. Prior works have used such a decomposition to estimate the joint density from lower-dimensional marginals, which can be estimated more reliably with the same number of samples. We combine two key ideas: dictionaries to represent 1-D densities, and random projections to estimate the joint distribution from 1-D marginals, explored separately in prior work. Our algorithm benefits from improved sample complexity over the previous dictionary-based approach by using 1-D marginals for reconstruction. We evaluate the performance of our method on estimating synthetic probability densities and compare it with the previous dictionary-based approach and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our algorithm outperforms these other approaches in all the experimental settings.

Abstract: Analysis of geospatial data has traditionally been model-based, with a mean model, customarily specified as a linear regression on the covariates, and a covariance model, encoding the spatial dependence. We relax the strong assumption of linearity and propose embedding neural networks directly within the traditional geostatistical models to accommodate non-linear mean functions while retaining all other advantages including use of Gaussian Processes to explicitly model the spatial covariance, enabling inference on the covariate effect through the mean and on the spatial dependence through the covariance, and offering predictions at new locations via kriging. We propose NN-GLS, a new neural network estimation algorithm for the non-linear mean in GP models that explicitly accounts for the spatial covariance through generalized least squares (GLS), the same loss used in the linear case. We show that NN-GLS admits a representation as a special type of graph neural network (GNN). This connection facilitates use of standard neural network computational techniques for irregular geospatial data, enabling novel and scalable mini-batching, backpropagation, and kriging schemes. Theoretically, we show that NN-GLS will be consistent for irregularly observed spatially correlated data processes. To our knowledge this is the first asymptotic consistency result for any neural network algorithm for spatial data. We demonstrate the methodology through simulated and real datasets.