Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: We perform a study on kernel regression for large-dimensional data (where the sample size $n$ is polynomially depending on the dimension $d$ of the samples, i.e., $n\asymp d^{\gamma}$ for some $\gamma >0$ ). We first build a general tool to characterize the upper bound and the minimax lower bound of kernel regression for large dimensional data through the Mendelson complexity $\varepsilon_{n}^{2}$ and the metric entropy $\bar{\varepsilon}_{n}^{2}$ respectively. When the target function falls into the RKHS associated with a (general) inner product model defined on $\mathbb{S}^{d}$, we utilize the new tool to show that the minimax rate of the excess risk of kernel regression is $n^{-1/2}$ when $n\asymp d^{\gamma}$ for $\gamma =2, 4, 6, 8, \cdots$. We then further determine the optimal rate of the excess risk of kernel regression for all the $\gamma>0$ and find that the curve of optimal rate varying along $\gamma$ exhibits several new phenomena including the {\it multiple descent behavior} and the {\it periodic plateau behavior}. As an application, For the neural tangent kernel (NTK), we also provide a similar explicit description of the curve of optimal rate. As a direct corollary, we know these claims hold for wide neural networks as well.

Abstract: We develop a new policy gradient and actor-critic algorithm for solving mean-field control problems within a continuous time reinforcement learning setting. Our approach leverages a gradient-based representation of the value function, employing parametrized randomized policies. The learning for both the actor (policy) and critic (value function) is facilitated by a class of moment neural network functions on the Wasserstein space of probability measures, and the key feature is to sample directly trajectories of distributions. A central challenge addressed in this study pertains to the computational treatment of an operator specific to the mean-field framework. To illustrate the effectiveness of our methods, we provide a comprehensive set of numerical results. These encompass diverse examples, including multi-dimensional settings and nonlinear quadratic mean-field control problems with controlled volatility.

Abstract: Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In contrast to previous approaches, which often operate on ensemble summary statistics and dismiss details of the ensemble distribution, we propose networks which treat forecast ensembles as a set of unordered member forecasts and learn link functions that are by design invariant to permutations of the member ordering. We evaluate the quality of the obtained forecast distributions in terms of calibration and sharpness, and compare the models against classical and neural network-based benchmark methods. In case studies addressing the postprocessing of surface temperature and wind gust forecasts, we demonstrate state-of-the-art prediction quality. To deepen the understanding of the learned inference process, we further propose a permutation-based importance analysis for ensemble-valued predictors, which highlights specific aspects of the ensemble forecast that are considered important by the trained postprocessing models. Our results suggest that most of the relevant information is contained in few ensemble-internal degrees of freedom, which may impact the design of future ensemble forecasting and postprocessing systems.