Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: We present novel cross-sectional and longitudinal claim count models for vehicle insurance built upon the Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN) framework proposed by Mario W\"uthrich and Michael Merz. The CANN approach combines a classical actuarial model, such as a generalized linear model, with a neural network. This blending of models results in a two-component model comprising a classical regression model and a neural network part. The CANN model leverages the strengths of both components, providing a solid foundation and interpretability from the classical model while harnessing the flexibility and capacity to capture intricate relationships and interactions offered by the neural network. In our proposed models, we use well-known log-linear claim count regression models for the classical regression part and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) for the neural network part. The MLP part is used to process telematics car driving data given as a vector characterizing the driving behavior of each insured driver. In addition to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions for cross-sectional data, we propose a procedure for training our CANN model with a multivariate negative binomial (MVNB) specification. By doing so, we introduce a longitudinal model that accounts for the dependence between contracts from the same insured. Our results reveal that the CANN models exhibit superior performance compared to log-linear models that rely on manually engineered telematics features.

Abstract: One of the key objects of binary classification is the regression function, i.e., the conditional expectation of the class labels given the inputs. With the regression function not only a Bayes optimal classifier can be defined, but it also encodes the corresponding misclassification probabilities. The paper presents a resampling framework to construct exact, distribution-free and non-asymptotically guaranteed confidence regions for the true regression function for any user-chosen confidence level. Then, specific algorithms are suggested to demonstrate the framework. It is proved that the constructed confidence regions are strongly consistent, that is, any false model is excluded in the long run with probability one. The exclusion is quantified with probably approximately correct type bounds, as well. Finally, the algorithms are validated via numerical experiments, and the methods are compared to approximate asymptotic confidence ellipsoids.

Abstract: Distribution shifts are a serious concern in modern statistical learning as they can systematically change the properties of the data away from the truth. We focus on Wasserstein distribution shifts, where every data point may undergo a slight perturbation, as opposed to the Huber contamination model where a fraction of observations are outliers. We formulate and study shifts beyond independent perturbations, exploring Joint Distribution Shifts, where the per-observation perturbations can be coordinated. We analyze several important statistical problems, including location estimation, linear regression, and non-parametric density estimation. Under a squared loss for mean estimation and prediction error in linear regression, we find the exact minimax risk, a least favorable perturbation, and show that the sample mean and least squares estimators are respectively optimal. This holds for both independent and joint shifts, but the least favorable perturbations and minimax risks differ. For other problems, we provide nearly optimal estimators and precise finite-sample bounds. We also introduce several tools for bounding the minimax risk under distribution shift, such as a smoothing technique for location families, and generalizations of classical tools including least favorable sequences of priors, the modulus of continuity, Le Cam's, Fano's, and Assouad's methods.