Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: We study the generalization error of statistical learning models in a Federated Learning (FL) setting. Specifically, there are $K$ devices or clients, each holding an independent own dataset of size $n$. Individual models, learned locally via Stochastic Gradient Descent, are aggregated (averaged) by a central server into a global model and then sent back to the devices. We consider multiple (say $R \in \mathbb N^*$) rounds of model aggregation and study the effect of $R$ on the generalization error of the final aggregated model. We establish an upper bound on the generalization error that accounts explicitly for the effect of $R$ (in addition to the number of participating devices $K$ and dataset size $n$). It is observed that, for fixed $(n, K)$, the bound increases with $R$, suggesting that the generalization of such learning algorithms is negatively affected by more frequent communication with the parameter server. Combined with the fact that the empirical risk, however, generally decreases for larger values of $R$, this indicates that $R$ might be a parameter to optimize to reduce the population risk of FL algorithms. The results of this paper, which extend straightforwardly to the heterogeneous data setting, are also illustrated through numerical examples.

Abstract: Time series clustering is a central machine learning task with applications in many fields. While the majority of the methods focus on real-valued time series, very few works consider series with discrete response. In this paper, the problem of clustering ordinal time series is addressed. To this aim, two novel distances between ordinal time series are introduced and used to construct fuzzy clustering procedures. Both metrics are functions of the estimated cumulative probabilities, thus automatically taking advantage of the ordering inherent to the series' range. The resulting clustering algorithms are computationally efficient and able to group series generated from similar stochastic processes, reaching accurate results even though the series come from a wide variety of models. Since the dynamic of the series may vary over the time, we adopt a fuzzy approach, thus enabling the procedures to locate each series into several clusters with different membership degrees. An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed methods outperform several alternative procedures. Weighted versions of the clustering algorithms are also presented and their advantages with respect to the original methods are discussed. Two specific applications involving economic time series illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches.

Abstract: The 21st century has witnessed a growing interest in the analysis of time series data. Whereas most of the literature on the topic deals with real-valued time series, ordinal time series have typically received much less attention. However, the development of specific analytical tools for the latter objects has substantially increased in recent years. The R package otsfeatures attempts to provide a set of simple functions for analyzing ordinal time series. In particular, several commands allowing the extraction of well-known statistical features and the execution of inferential tasks are available for the user. The output of several functions can be employed to perform traditional machine learning tasks including clustering, classification or outlier detection. otsfeatures also incorporates two datasets of financial time series which were used in the literature for clustering purposes, as well as three interesting synthetic databases. The main properties of the package are described and its use is illustrated through several examples. Researchers from a broad variety of disciplines could benefit from the powerful tools provided by otsfeatures.