Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods for numerical integration offer significant advantages over their non-Bayesian counterparts: they can encode prior information about the integrand, and can quantify uncertainty over estimates of an integral. However, the most popular algorithm in this class, Bayesian quadrature, is based on Gaussian process models and is therefore associated with a high computational cost. To improve scalability, we propose an alternative approach based on Bayesian neural networks which we call Bayesian Stein networks. The key ingredients are a neural network architecture based on Stein operators, and an approximation of the Bayesian posterior based on the Laplace approximation. We show that this leads to orders of magnitude speed-ups on the popular Genz functions benchmark, and on challenging problems arising in the Bayesian analysis of dynamical systems, and the prediction of energy production for a large-scale wind farm.

Abstract: Despite their successful application to a variety of tasks, neural networks remain limited, like other machine learning methods, by their sensitivity to shifts in the data: their performance can be severely impacted by differences in distribution between the data on which they were trained and that on which they are deployed. In this article, we propose a new family of representations, called MAGDiff, that we extract from any given neural network classifier and that allows for efficient covariate data shift detection without the need to train a new model dedicated to this task. These representations are computed by comparing the activation graphs of the neural network for samples belonging to the training distribution and to the target distribution, and yield powerful data- and task-adapted statistics for the two-sample tests commonly used for data set shift detection. We demonstrate this empirically by measuring the statistical powers of two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests on several different data sets and shift types, and showing that our novel representations induce significant improvements over a state-of-the-art baseline relying on the network output.