Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: Laplacian regularized stratified models (LRSM) are models that utilize the explicit or implicit network structure of the sub-problems as defined by the categorical features called strata (e.g., age, region, time, forecast horizon, etc.), and draw upon data from neighboring strata to enhance the parameter learning of each sub-problem. They have been widely applied in machine learning and signal processing problems, including but not limited to time series forecasting, representation learning, graph clustering, max-margin classification, and general few-shot learning. Nevertheless, existing works on LRSM have either assumed a known graph or are restricted to specific applications. In this paper, we start by showing the importance and sensitivity of graph weights in LRSM, and provably show that the sensitivity can be arbitrarily large when the parameter scales and sample sizes are heavily imbalanced across nodes. We then propose a generic approach to jointly learn the graph while fitting the model parameters by solving a single optimization problem. We interpret the proposed formulation from both a graph connectivity viewpoint and an end-to-end Bayesian perspective, and propose an efficient algorithm to solve the problem. Convergence guarantees of the proposed optimization algorithm is also provided despite the lack of global strongly smoothness of the Laplacian regularization term typically required in the existing literature, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the efficiency of our approach compared to existing methods by various real-world numerical examples.

Abstract: In this paper, we consider the generalization ability of deep wide feedforward ReLU neural networks defined on a bounded domain $\mathcal X \subset \mathbb R^{d}$. We first demonstrate that the generalization ability of the neural network can be fully characterized by that of the corresponding deep neural tangent kernel (NTK) regression. We then investigate on the spectral properties of the deep NTK and show that the deep NTK is positive definite on $\mathcal{X}$ and its eigenvalue decay rate is $(d+1)/d$. Thanks to the well established theories in kernel regression, we then conclude that multilayer wide neural networks trained by gradient descent with proper early stopping achieve the minimax rate, provided that the regression function lies in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) associated with the corresponding NTK. Finally, we illustrate that the overfitted multilayer wide neural networks can not generalize well on $\mathbb S^{d}$.

Abstract: We describe how interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models can be used to analyze high-dimensional environmental data. We illustrate this by using environmental, social, human and biophysical data to predict the financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia against climate hazards. We show how group structures can be considered and how interactions can be found in high-dimensional datasets using a novel 2-step boosting approach. The advantages and efficacy of the proposed method are shown and discussed. Results indicate that the presence of interaction effects only improves predictive power when included in two-step boosting. The most important variable in predicting all types of vulnerabilities are natural assets. Other important variables are the type of irrigation, economic assets and the presence of crop damage of near farms.

Abstract: This work introduces interpretable regional descriptors, or IRDs, for local, model-agnostic interpretations. IRDs are hyperboxes that describe how an observation's feature values can be changed without affecting its prediction. They justify a prediction by providing a set of "even if" arguments (semi-factual explanations), and they indicate which features affect a prediction and whether pointwise biases or implausibilities exist. A concrete use case shows that this is valuable for both machine learning modelers and persons subject to a decision. We formalize the search for IRDs as an optimization problem and introduce a unifying framework for computing IRDs that covers desiderata, initialization techniques, and a post-processing method. We show how existing hyperbox methods can be adapted to fit into this unified framework. A benchmark study compares the methods based on several quality measures and identifies two strategies to improve IRDs.

Abstract: Normalizing flows are an established approach for modelling complex probability densities through invertible transformations from a base distribution. However, the accuracy with which the target distribution can be captured by the normalizing flow is strongly influenced by the topology of the base distribution. A mismatch between the topology of the target and the base can result in a poor performance, as is the case for multi-modal problems. A number of different works have attempted to modify the topology of the base distribution to better match the target, either through the use of Gaussian Mixture Models [Izmailov et al., 2020, Ardizzone et al., 2020, Hagemann and Neumayer, 2021] or learned accept/reject sampling [Stimper et al., 2022]. We introduce piecewise normalizing flows which divide the target distribution into clusters, with topologies that better match the standard normal base distribution, and train a series of flows to model complex multi-modal targets. The piecewise nature of the flows can be exploited to significantly reduce the computational cost of training through parallelization. We demonstrate the performance of the piecewise flows using standard benchmarks and compare the accuracy of the flows to the approach taken in Stimper et al., 2022 for modelling multi-modal distributions.

Abstract: In recommender system or crowdsourcing applications of online learning, a human's preferences or abilities are often a function of the algorithm's recent actions. Motivated by this, a significant line of work has formalized settings where an action's loss is a function of the number of times that action was recently played in the prior $m$ timesteps, where $m$ corresponds to a bound on human memory capacity. To more faithfully capture decay of human memory with time, we introduce the Weighted Tallying Bandit (WTB), which generalizes this setting by requiring that an action's loss is a function of a \emph{weighted} summation of the number of times that arm was played in the last $m$ timesteps. This WTB setting is intractable without further assumption. So we study it under Repeated Exposure Optimality (REO), a condition motivated by the literature on human physiology, which requires the existence of an action that when repetitively played will eventually yield smaller loss than any other sequence of actions. We study the minimization of the complete policy regret (CPR), which is the strongest notion of regret, in WTB under REO. Since $m$ is typically unknown, we assume we only have access to an upper bound $M$ on $m$. We show that for problems with $K$ actions and horizon $T$, a simple modification of the successive elimination algorithm has $O \left( \sqrt{KT} + (m+M)K \right)$ CPR. Interestingly, upto an additive (in lieu of mutliplicative) factor in $(m+M)K$, this recovers the classical guarantee for the simpler stochastic multi-armed bandit with traditional regret. We additionally show that in our setting, any algorithm will suffer additive CPR of $\Omega \left( mK + M \right)$, demonstrating our result is nearly optimal. Our algorithm is computationally efficient, and we experimentally demonstrate its practicality and superiority over natural baselines.