Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: Forecasting the state of a system from an observed time series is the subject of research in many domains, such as computational neuroscience. Here, the prediction of epileptic seizures from brain measurements is an unresolved problem. There are neither complete models describing underlying brain dynamics, nor do individual patients exhibit a single seizure onset pattern, which complicates the development of a `one-size-fits-all' solution. Based on a longitudinal patient data set, we address the automated discovery and quantification of statistical features (biomarkers) that can be used to forecast seizures in a patient-specific way. We use existing and novel feature extraction algorithms, in particular the path signature, a recent development in time series analysis. Of particular interest is how this set of complex, nonlinear features performs compared to simpler, linear features on this task. Our inference is based on statistical classification algorithms with in-built subset selection to discern time series with and without an impending seizure while selecting only a small number of relevant features. This study may be seen as a step towards a generalisable pattern recognition pipeline for time series in a broader context.

Abstract: A first step is taken towards understanding often observed non-robustness phenomena of deep neural net (DNN) classifiers. This is done from the perspective of Boolean functions by asking if certain sequences of Boolean functions represented by common DNN models are noise sensitive or noise stable, concepts defined in the Boolean function literature. Due to the natural randomness in DNN models, these concepts are extended to annealed and quenched versions. Here we sort out the relation between these definitions and investigate the properties of two standard DNN architectures, the fully connected and convolutional models, when initiated with Gaussian weights.

Abstract: Advanced Manufacturing (AM) has gained significant interest in the nuclear community for its potential application on nuclear materials. One challenge is to obtain desired material properties via controlling the manufacturing process during runtime. Intelligent AM based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) relies on an automated process-level control mechanism to generate optimal design variables and adaptive system settings for improved end-product properties. A high-fidelity thermo-mechanical model for direct energy deposition has recently been developed within the MOOSE framework at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The goal of this work is to develop an accurate and fast-running reduced order model (ROM) for this MOOSE-based AM model that can be used in a DRL-based process control and optimization method. Operator learning (OL)-based methods will be employed due to their capability to learn a family of differential equations, in this work, produced by changing process variables in the Gaussian point heat source for the laser. We will develop OL-based ROM using Fourier neural operator, and perform a benchmark comparison of its performance with a conventional deep neural network-based ROM.

Abstract: The reliability of controlled experiments, or "A/B tests," can often be compromised due to the phenomenon of network interference, wherein the outcome for one unit is influenced by other units. To tackle this challenge, we propose a machine learning-based method to identify and characterize heterogeneous network interference. Our approach accounts for latent complex network structures and automates the task of "exposure mapping'' determination, which addresses the two major limitations in the existing literature. We introduce "causal network motifs'' and employ transparent machine learning models to establish the most suitable exposure mapping that reflects underlying network interference patterns. Our method's efficacy has been validated through simulations on two synthetic experiments and a real-world, large-scale test involving 1-2 million Instagram users, outperforming conventional methods such as design-based cluster randomization and analysis-based neighborhood exposure mapping. Overall, our approach not only offers a comprehensive, automated solution for managing network interference and improving the precision of A/B testing results, but it also sheds light on users' mutual influence and aids in the refinement of marketing strategies.