Machine Learning (stat.ML)

Abstract: We investigate online classification with paid stochastic experts. Here, before making their prediction, each expert must be paid. The amount that we pay each expert directly influences the accuracy of their prediction through some unknown Lipschitz "productivity" function. In each round, the learner must decide how much to pay each expert and then make a prediction. They incur a cost equal to a weighted sum of the prediction error and upfront payments for all experts. We introduce an online learning algorithm whose total cost after $T$ rounds exceeds that of a predictor which knows the productivity of all experts in advance by at most $\mathcal{O}(K^2(\log T)\sqrt{T})$ where $K$ is the number of experts. In order to achieve this result, we combine Lipschitz bandits and online classification with surrogate losses. These tools allow us to improve upon the bound of order $T^{2/3}$ one would obtain in the standard Lipschitz bandit setting. Our algorithm is empirically evaluated on synthetic data

Abstract: Time series imputation remains a significant challenge across many fields due to the potentially significant variability in the type of data being modelled. Whilst traditional imputation methods often impose strong assumptions on the underlying data generation process, limiting their applicability, researchers have recently begun to investigate the potential of deep learning for this task, inspired by the strong performance shown by these models in both classification and regression problems across a range of applications. In this work we propose MADS, a novel auto-decoding framework for time series imputation, built upon implicit neural representations. Our method leverages the capabilities of SIRENs for high fidelity reconstruction of signals and irregular data, and combines it with a hypernetwork architecture which allows us to generalise by learning a prior over the space of time series. We evaluate our model on two real-world datasets, and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series imputation. On the human activity dataset, it improves imputation performance by at least 40%, while on the air quality dataset it is shown to be competitive across all metrics. When evaluated on synthetic data, our model results in the best average rank across different dataset configurations over all baselines.

Abstract: This paper explores the connections between optimal transport and variational inference, with a focus on forward and reverse time stochastic differential equations and Girsanov transformations.We present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of a novel score-based annealed flow technique (with connections to Jarzynski and Crooks identities from statistical physics) and a regularised iterative proportional fitting (IPF)-type objective, departing from the sequential nature of standard IPF. Through a series of generative modelling examples and a double-well-based rare event task, we showcase the potential of the proposed methods.

Abstract: Manifold learning approaches seek the intrinsic, low-dimensional data structure within a high-dimensional space. Mainstream manifold learning algorithms, such as Isomap, UMAP, $t$-SNE, Diffusion Map, and Laplacian Eigenmaps do not use data labels and are thus considered unsupervised. Existing supervised extensions of these methods are limited to classification problems and fall short of uncovering meaningful embeddings due to their construction using order non-preserving, class-conditional distances. In this paper, we show the weaknesses of class-conditional manifold learning quantitatively and visually and propose an alternate choice of kernel for supervised dimensionality reduction using a data-geometry-preserving variant of random forest proximities as an initialization for manifold learning methods. We show that local structure preservation using these proximities is near universal across manifold learning approaches and global structure is properly maintained using diffusion-based algorithms.