Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)

Abstract: Even if their detection is for now challenging, observation of small terrestrial planets will be easier in a near future thanks to continuous improvements of detection and characterisation instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a key step to understand their characteristics, atmospheric composition and possible history. If a surface water reservoir is present on such a terrestrial planet, an increase in insolation may lead to a dramatic positive feedback induced by water evaporation: the runaway greenhouse. The resulting rise of global surface temperature leads to the evaporation of the entire water reservoir, separating two very different population of planets: 1) temperate planets with a surface water ocean and 2) hot planets with a puffed atmosphere dominated by water vapor. In this work we use a 3D General Circulation Model (GCM), the Generic-PCM, to study the runaway greenhouse transition, linking temperate and post-runaway states. Our simulations are made of two steps. First, assuming initially a liquid surface ocean, an evaporation phase which enriches the atmosphere in water vapor. Second, when the ocean is considered entirely evaporated, a dry transition phase for which the surface temperature increases dramatically. Finally, it converges on a hot and stable post-runaway state. By describing in detail the evolution of the climate during these two steps, we show a rapid transition of the cloud coverage and of the wind circulation from the troposphere to the stratosphere. By comparing our result to previous studies using 1D models, we discuss the effect of intrinsically 3D processes such as the global dynamics and the clouds, keys to understand the runaway greenhouse. We also explore the potential reversibility of the runaway greenhouse, limited by its radiative unbalance.

Abstract: High-precision exoplanet eclipse light curves, like those possible with JWST, enable flux and temperature mapping of exoplanet atmospheres. These eclipse maps will have unprecedented precision, providing an opportunity to constrain current theoretical predictions of exoplanet atmospheres. However, eclipse mapping has unavoidable mathematical limitations because many map patterns are unobservable. This ``null space'' has implications for making comparisons between predictions from general circulation models (GCMs) and the observed planet maps, and, thus, affects our understanding of the physical processes driving the observed maps. We describe the eclipse-mapping null space and show how GCM forward models can be transformed to their observable modes for more appropriate comparison with retrieved eclipse maps, demonstrated with applications to synthetic data of an ultra-hot Jupiter and a cloudy warm Jupiter under JWST-best-case- and extreme-precision observing scenarios. We show that the effects of the null space can be mitigated and manipulated through observational design, and JWST exposure times are short enough to not increase the size of the null space. Furthermore, we show the mathematical connection between the null space and the ``eigenmapping'' method, demonstrating how eigenmaps can be used to understand the null space in a model-independent way. We leverage this connection to incorporate null-space uncertainties in retrieved maps, which increases the uncertainties to now encompass the ground truth for synthetic data. The comparisons between observed maps and forward models that are enabled by this work, and the improved eclipse-mapping uncertainties, will be critical to our interpretation of multidimensional aspects of exoplanets in the JWST era.

Abstract: Dwarf planets Eris and Makemake have surfaces bearing methane ice of unknown origin. D/H ratios were recently determined from James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations of Eris and Makemake (Grundy et al., submitted), giving us new clues to decipher the origin of methane. Here, we develop geochemical models to test if the origin of methane could be primordial, derived from CO$_2$ or CO ("abiotic"), or sourced by organics ("thermogenic"). We find that primordial methane is inconsistent with the observational data, whereas both abiotic and thermogenic methane can have D/H ratios that overlap the observed ranges. This suggests that Eris and Makemake either never acquired a significant amount of methane during their formation, or their original inventories were removed and then replaced by a source of internally produced methane. Because producing abiotic or thermogenic methane likely requires temperatures in excess of ~150{\deg}C, we infer that Eris and Makemake have rocky cores that underwent substantial radiogenic heating. Their cores may still be warm/hot enough to produce methane. This heating could have driven hydrothermal circulation at the bottom of an ice-covered ocean to generate abiotic methane, and/or metamorphic reactions involving accreted organic matter could have occurred in response to heating in the deeper interior, generating thermogenic methane. Additional analyses of thermal evolution model results and predictions from modeling of D-H exchange in the solar nebula support our findings of elevated subsurface temperatures and a lack of primordial methane on Eris and Makemake. It remains an open question whether their D/H ratios may have evolved subsequent to methane outgassing. Recommendations are given for future activities to further test proposed scenarios of abiotic and thermogenic methane production on Eris and Makemake, and to explore these worlds up close.

Abstract: The search for habitable environments and biomarkers in exoplanetary atmospheres is the holy grail of exoplanet science. The detection of atmospheric signatures of habitable Earth-like exoplanets is challenging due to their small planet-star size contrast and thin atmospheres with high mean molecular weight. Recently, a new class of habitable exoplanets, called Hycean worlds, has been proposed, defined as temperate ocean-covered worlds with H2-rich atmospheres. Their large sizes and extended atmospheres, compared to rocky planets of the same mass, make Hycean worlds significantly more accessible to atmospheric spectroscopy with the JWST. Here we report a transmission spectrum of the candidate Hycean world, K2-18 b, observed with the JWST NIRISS and NIRSpec instruments in the 0.9-5.2 $\mu$m range. The spectrum reveals strong detections of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5$\sigma$ and 3$\sigma$ confidence, respectively, with high volume mixing ratios of ~1% each in a H2-rich atmosphere. The abundant CH4 and CO2 along with the non-detection of ammonia (NH3) are consistent with chemical predictions for an ocean under a temperate H2-rich atmosphere on K2-18 b. The spectrum also suggests potential signs of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which has been predicted to be an observable biomarker in Hycean worlds, motivating considerations of possible biological activity on the planet. The detection of CH4 resolves the long-standing missing methane problem for temperate exoplanets and the degeneracy in the atmospheric composition of K2-18 b from previous observations. We discuss possible implications of the findings, open questions, and future observations to explore this new regime in the search for life elsewhere.