Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, yet they are often underpowered for detecting effect heterogeneity. Large observational studies (OS) can supplement RCTs for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation, but a key barrier is covariate mismatch: the two sources measure different, only partially overlapping, covariates. We propose CALM (Calibrated ALignment under covariate Mismatch), which bypasses imputation by learning embeddings that map each source's features into a common representation space. OS outcome models are transferred to the RCT embedding space and calibrated using trial data, preserving causal identification from randomization. Finite-sample risk bounds decompose into alignment error, outcome-model complexity, and calibration complexity terms, identifying when embedding alignment outperforms imputation. Under the calibration-based linear variant, the framework provides protection against negative transfer; the neural variant can be vulnerable under severe distributional shift. Under sparse linear models, the embedding approach strictly generalizes imputation. Simulations across 51 settings confirm that (i) calibration-based methods are equivalent for linear CATEs, and (ii) the neural embedding variant wins all 22 nonlinear-regime settings with large margins. less

As agentic AI systems become increasingly capable of generating and optimizing GPU kernels, progress is constrained by benchmarks that reward speedup over software baselines rather than proximity to hardware-efficient execution. We present SOL-ExecBench, a benchmark of 235 CUDA kernel optimization problems extracted from 124 production and emerging AI models spanning language, diffusion, vision, audio, video, and hybrid architectures, targeting NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs. The benchmark covers forward and backward workloads across BF16, FP8, and NVFP4, including kernels whose best performance is expected to rely on Blackwell-specific capabilities. Unlike prior benchmarks that evaluate kernels primarily relative to software implementations, SOL-ExecBench measures performance against analytically derived Speed-of-Light (SOL) bounds computed by SOLAR, our pipeline for deriving hardware-grounded SOL bounds, yielding a fixed target for hardware-efficient optimization. We report a SOL Score that quantifies how much of the gap between a release-defined scoring baseline and the hardware SOL bound a candidate kernel closes. To support robust evaluation of agentic optimizers, we additionally provide a sandboxed harness with GPU clock locking, L2 cache clearing, isolated subprocess execution, and static analysis based checks against common reward-hacking strategies. SOL-ExecBench reframes GPU kernel benchmarking from beating a mutable software baseline to closing the remaining gap to hardware Speed-of-Light. less

Synthetic data is often perceived as a silver-bullet solution to data anonymization and privacy-preserving data publishing. Drawn from generative models like diffusion models, synthetic data is expected to preserve the statistical properties of the original dataset while remaining resilient to privacy attacks. Recent developments of diffusion models have been effective on a wide range of data types, but their privacy resilience, particularly for tabular formats, remains largely unexplored. MIDST challenge sought a quantitative evaluation of the privacy gain of synthetic tabular data generated by diffusion models, with a specific focus on its resistance to membership inference attacks (MIAs). Given the heterogeneity and complexity of tabular data, multiple target models were explored for MIAs, including diffusion models for single tables of mixed data types and multi-relational tables with interconnected constraints. MIDST inspired the development of novel black-box and white-box MIAs tailored to these target diffusion models as a key outcome, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of their privacy efficacy. The MIDST GitHub repository is available at https://github.com/VectorInstitute/MIDST less

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website. less

In real-world Federated Learning (FL) deployments, data distributions on devices that participate in training evolve over time. This leads to asynchronous data drift, where different devices shift at different times and toward different distributions. Mitigating such drift is challenging: frequent retraining incurs high computational cost on resource-constrained devices, while infrequent retraining degrades performance on drifting devices. We propose DriftGuard, a federated continual learning framework that efficiently adapts to asynchronous data drift. DriftGuard adopts a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) inspired architecture that separates shared parameters, which capture globally transferable knowledge, from local parameters that adapt to group-specific distributions. This design enables two complementary retraining strategies: (i) global retraining, which updates the shared parameters when system-wide drift is identified, and (ii) group retraining, which selectively updates local parameters for clusters of devices identified via MoE gating patterns, without sharing raw data. Experiments across multiple datasets and models show that DriftGuard matches or exceeds state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing total retraining cost by up to 83%. As a result, it achieves the highest accuracy per unit retraining cost, improving over the strongest baseline by up to 2.3x. DriftGuard is available for download from https://github.com/blessonvar/DriftGuard. less