Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

Abstract: Experimental work suggests that biological soil crusts, dominant primary producers in drylands and tundra, are particularly vulnerable to disturbances that cause reverse ecological succession. To model successional transitions in biocrust communities, we propose a resource-firing game that captures succession dynamics without specifying detailed function forms. The model is evaluated in idealized terrestrial ecosystems, where disturbances are modeled as a reduction in available resources that triggers inter-species competition. The resource-firing game is executed on a finite graph with nodes representing species in the community and a sink node that becomes active when every species is depleted of resources. First, we discuss the theoretical basis of the resource-firing game, evaluate it in the light of existing literature, and consider the characteristics of a biocrust community that has evolved to equilibrium. We then examine the dependence of resource-firing and game stability on species richness, showing that high species richness increases the probability of very short and long avalanches, but not those of intermediate length. Indeed, this result suggests that the response of the community to disturbance is both directional and episodic, proceeding towards reverse succession in bursts of variable length. Finally, we incorporate the spatial structure of the biocrust community into a Cayley Tree and derive a formula for the probability that a disturbance, modeled as a random attack, initiates a large species-death event.

Abstract: Cell lineage statistics is a powerful tool for inferring cellular parameters, such as division rate, death rate or the population growth rate. Yet, in practice such an analysis suffers from a basic problem: how should we treat incomplete lineages that do not survive until the end of the experiment? Here, we develop a model-independent theoretical framework to address this issue. We show how to quantify fitness landscape, survivor bias and selection for arbitrary cell traits from cell lineage statistics in the presence of death, and we test this method using an experimental data set in which a cell population is exposed to a drug that kills a large fraction of the population. This analysis reveals that failing to properly account for dead lineages can lead to misleading fitness estimations. For simple trait dynamics, we prove and illustrate numerically that the fitness landscape and the survivor bias can in addition be used for the non-parametric estimation of the division and death rates, using only lineage histories. Our framework provides universal bounds on the population growth rate, and a fluctuation-response relation which quantifies the reduction of population growth rate due to the variability in death rate. Further, in the context of cell size control, we obtain generalizations of Powell's relation that link the distributions of generation times with the population growth rate, and show that the survivor bias can sometimes conceal the adder property, namely the constant increment of volume between birth and division.