Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

Abstract: In the long run, the eventual extinction of any biological population is an inevitable outcome. While extensive research has focused on the average time it takes for a population to go extinct under various circumstances, there has been limited exploration of the distributions of extinction times and the likelihood of significant fluctuations. Recently, Hathcock and Strogatz [PRL 128, 218301 (2022)] identified Gumbel statistics as a universal asymptotic distribution for extinction-prone dynamics in a stable environment. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive survey of this problem by examining a range of plausible scenarios, including extinction-prone, marginal (neutral), and stable dynamics. We consider the influence of demographic stochasticity, which arises from the inherent randomness of the birth-death process, as well as cases where stochasticity originates from the more pronounced effect of random environmental variations. Our work proposes several generic criteria that can be used for the classification of experimental and empirical systems, thereby enhancing our ability to discern the mechanisms governing extinction dynamics. By employing these criteria, we can improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving extinction processes.

Abstract: Phylogenetic networks play an important role in evolutionary biology as, other than phylogenetic trees, they can be used to accommodate reticulate evolutionary events such as horizontal gene transfer and hybridization. Recent research has provided a lot of progress concerning the reconstruction of such networks from data as well as insight into their graph theoretical properties. However, methods and tools to quantify structural properties of networks or differences between them are still very limited. For example, for phylogenetic trees, it is common to use balance indices to draw conclusions concerning the underlying evolutionary model, and more than twenty such indices have been proposed and are used for different purposes. One of the most frequently used balance index for trees is the so-called total cophenetic index, which has several mathematically and biologically desirable properties. For networks, on the other hand, balance indices are to-date still scarce. In this contribution, we introduce the \textit{weighted} total cophenetic index as a generalization of the total cophenetic index for trees to make it applicable to general phylogenetic networks. As we shall see, this index can be determined efficiently and behaves in a mathematical sound way, i.e., it satisfies so-called locality and recursiveness conditions. In addition, we analyze its extremal properties and, in particular, we investigate its maxima and minima as well as the structure of networks that achieve these values within the space of so-called level-$1$ networks. We finally briefly compare this novel index to the two other network balance indices available so-far.