Goodwin, K. J. A.; Chardon, N. I.; Pradhan, K.; Hille Ris Lambers, J.; Angert, A. L.

Climate change is causing many species ranges to shift upslope to higher elevations as species track their climatic requirements. However, many species have not shifted in pace with recent warming (i.e., range stasis), possibly due either to demographic lags or microclimatic buffering. The lagged-response hypothesis posits that range stasis disguises an underlying climatic sensitivity if range shifts lag the velocity of climate change due to slow colonization or mortality. Alternatively, the microclimatic buffering hypothesis proposes that small-scale variation within the landscape, such as canopy cover, creates patches of suitable habitat within otherwise unsuitable macroclimates that create climate refugia and buffer range contractions. To test these two hypotheses, we combined a large seed addition experiment of 25 plant species across macro- and micro-scale climate gradients with local herbaria records to compare patterns of seedling recruitment relative to adult ranges and microclimate in the North Cascades, USA. Despite high species-to-species variability in recruitment, community-level patterns supported the lagged response hypothesis, with a mismatch between where recruitment vs. adults occur. On average, the seedling recruitment optimum shifted from the adult climatic range centre to historically cooler, wetter regions and many species recruited beyond their cold (e.g., leading) range edge. Meanwhile, successful recruitment at warm and dry edges, despite recent climate change, suggests that macroclimatic effects on recruitment do not drive trailing range dynamics. By contrast, we were unable to detect evidence of microclimatic buffering due to canopy cover. Combined, our results suggest apparent range stasis in our system is a lagged response to climate change at the cool ends of species ranges, with range expansions likely to occur slowly or in a punctuated fashion.