Staniczenko, P. P. A.; Verwoerd, J.; Brosi, B. J.; Panja, D.

The phenology of organisms worldwide is shifting in response to changes in environmental conditions. There is growing concern that resulting timing mismatches among interacting species will negatively impact system-level properties, yet there is no general framework for evaluating community responses to changes in phenology. To address this gap, we developed a mathematical framework based on local stability analysis and used it to assess the resilience implications of phenological perturbations with a multi-year, highly time-resolved empirical dataset on subalpine plant-pollinator communities. The forecasted effects of phenological perturbations were largely independent of perturbations to species densities, indicating the potential for even small changes in phenology to disrupt the functioning of ecosystems that are otherwise highly stable.