Rolfi, J.; Radici, A.; Bandi, C.; Epis, S.; Gabrieli, P.; Brilli, M.

The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for the transmission of several arboviruses and is currently spreading across many continents. Since conventional control methods, like insecticides, often lead to environmental problems and the emergence of resistance, scientists developed alternative mosquito control strategies. One of the most used is the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT), which involves the mass release of males sterilized through irradiation. The Toxic Male Technique (TMT) is instead based on the release of genetically modified males expressing toxic proteins that kill females when they mate. Control strategies are often intended as methods to eradicate mosquito populations, yet a less ambitious and more cost-effective task is to reduce them such that the probability of transmission of viruses to humans becomes negligible. To compare the efficacy of these control strategies, we develop a mathematical model with two communicating compartments: a mosquito population and epidemiological model coupled with a human epidemiological model. As a proof-of-concept, we test the model using meteorological and entomological data for the Emilia-Romagna region. Our results indicate that the TMT strategy is more effective in lowering the probability of transmission and provides indication for the deployment of control strategies.