Camac, J. S.; Cantele, M.; Ha Pham, V.; Li, C.; Robinson, A.; Kompas, T.

It is well known that the increasing globalisation of human movement and trade has led to substantial range expansions of many taxa, and as a consequence, is increasingly exposing countries to novel biosecurity threats. This increased exposure to novel threats is expected to be exacerbated by a changing climate as trade patterns and species distributions change. In many countries biosecurity regulators are already struggling to contend with the increased exposure to pests and diseases, and as such, must shift towards a pro-active strategy of anticipating risk. However, to anticipate risk, regulators must make better use of the data they collect (e.g. border interceptions) and develop models capable of forecasting biosecurity propagule pressure and establishment exposure as a function of changing trade, human population, and species distributions. In this project, we develop a highly innovative model framework that simulates annual changes in international trade patterns (imports & exports) as a function of climate change impacts on crop productivity, labour productivity (via heat stress) and the amount of arable land. These simulated changes in global trade are then coupled with border interception data, and annual predicted changes in the geographic distributions of both human populations and threat climate suitability to estimate climate-induced changes in: 1) contamination rates for imports from different trading partners, 2) the total amount of biosecurity risk material arriving at Australia\'s borders, and 3) its exposure to an establishment event (Figure 1.1). Here, we provide an in-depth description of both the trade and biosecurity risk sub-models. We then illustrate the model\'s implementation and outputs under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the purposes of forecasting temporal changes in: 1) global and regional economic trade; and 2) the amount of biosecurity risk material arriving at Australia\'s border (i.e. propagule pressure) and what it may mean for establishment exposure. In illustrating the biosecurity risk, we focused on five plant pests deemed by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) as an exemplar of different hitch-hiking functional groups.