Machine Learning (cs.LG)

Abstract: Distributed collaborative machine learning (DCML) is a promising method in the Internet of Things (IoT) domain for training deep learning models, as data is distributed across multiple devices. A key advantage of this approach is that it improves data privacy by removing the necessity for the centralized aggregation of raw data but also empowers IoT devices with low computational power. Among various techniques in a DCML framework, federated split learning, known as splitfed learning (SFL), is the most suitable for efficient training and testing when devices have limited computational capabilities. Nevertheless, when resource-constrained IoT devices have only positive labeled data, multiclass classification deep learning models in SFL fail to converge or provide suboptimal results. To overcome these challenges, we propose splitfed learning with positive labels (SFPL). SFPL applies a random shuffling function to the smashed data received from clients before supplying it to the server for model training. Additionally, SFPL incorporates the local batch normalization for the client-side model portion during the inference phase. Our results demonstrate that SFPL outperforms SFL: (i) by factors of 51.54 and 32.57 for ResNet-56 and ResNet-32, respectively, with the CIFAR-100 dataset, and (ii) by factors of 9.23 and 8.52 for ResNet-32 and ResNet-8, respectively, with CIFAR-10 dataset. Overall, this investigation underscores the efficacy of the proposed SFPL framework in DCML.

Abstract: A biologically plausible method for training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) involves treating each unit as a stochastic Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent, thereby considering the network as a team of agents. Consequently, all units can learn via REINFORCE, a local learning rule modulated by a global reward signal, which aligns more closely with biologically observed forms of synaptic plasticity. Nevertheless, this learning method is often slow and scales poorly with network size due to inefficient structural credit assignment, since a single reward signal is broadcast to all units without considering individual contributions. Weight Maximization, a proposed solution, replaces a unit's reward signal with the norm of its outgoing weight, thereby allowing each hidden unit to maximize the norm of the outgoing weight instead of the global reward signal. In this research report, we analyze the theoretical properties of Weight Maximization and propose a variant, Unbiased Weight Maximization. This new approach provides an unbiased learning rule that increases learning speed and improves asymptotic performance. Notably, to our knowledge, this is the first learning rule for a network of Bernoulli-logistic units that is unbiased and scales well with the number of network's units in terms of learning speed.

Abstract: The prediction of molecular properties is one of the most important and challenging tasks in the field of artificial intelligence-based drug design. Among the current mainstream methods, the most commonly used feature representation for training DNN models is based on SMILES and molecular graphs, although these methods are concise and effective, they also limit the ability to capture spatial information. In this work, we propose Curvature-based Transformer to improve the ability of Graph Transformer neural network models to extract structural information on molecular graph data by introducing Discretization of Ricci Curvature. To embed the curvature in the model, we add the curvature information of the graph as positional Encoding to the node features during the attention-score calculation. This method can introduce curvature information from graph data without changing the original network architecture, and it has the potential to be extended to other models. We performed experiments on chemical molecular datasets including PCQM4M-LST, MoleculeNet and compared with models such as Uni-Mol, Graphormer, and the results show that this method can achieve the state-of-the-art results. It is proved that the discretized Ricci curvature also reflects the structural and functional relationship while describing the local geometry of the graph molecular data.

Abstract: This work studies post-training parameter quantization in large language models (LLMs). We introduce quantization with incoherence processing (QuIP), a new method based on the insight that quantization benefits from incoherent weight and Hessian matrices, i.e., from the weights and the directions in which it is important to round them accurately being unaligned with the coordinate axes. QuIP consists of two steps: (1) an adaptive rounding procedure minimizing a quadratic proxy objective; (2) efficient pre- and post-processing that ensures weight and Hessian incoherence via multiplication by random orthogonal matrices. We complement QuIP with the first theoretical analysis for an LLM-scale quantization algorithm, and show that our theory also applies to an existing method, OPTQ. Empirically, we find that our incoherence preprocessing improves several existing quantization algorithms and yields the first LLM quantization methods that produce viable results using only two bits per weight. Our code can be found at https://github.com/jerry-chee/QuIP .

Abstract: Theoretical guarantees in reinforcement learning (RL) are known to suffer multiplicative blow-up factors with respect to the misspecification error of function approximation. Yet, the nature of such \emph{approximation factors} -- especially their optimal form in a given learning problem -- is poorly understood. In this paper we study this question in linear off-policy value function estimation, where many open questions remain. We study the approximation factor in a broad spectrum of settings, such as with the weighted $L_2$-norm (where the weighting is the offline state distribution), the $L_\infty$ norm, the presence vs. absence of state aliasing, and full vs. partial coverage of the state space. We establish the optimal asymptotic approximation factors (up to constants) for all of these settings. In particular, our bounds identify two instance-dependent factors for the $L_2(\mu)$ norm and only one for the $L_\infty$ norm, which are shown to dictate the hardness of off-policy evaluation under misspecification.

Abstract: Random forest is effective for prediction tasks but the randomness of tree generation hinders interpretability in feature importance analysis. To address this, we proposed DT-Sampler, a SAT-based method for measuring feature importance in tree-based model. Our method has fewer parameters than random forest and provides higher interpretability and stability for the analysis in real-world problems. An implementation of DT-Sampler is available at https://github.com/tsudalab/DT-sampler.

Abstract: Robust distributed learning with Byzantine failures has attracted extensive research interests in recent years. However, most of existing methods suffer from curse of dimensionality, which is increasingly serious with the growing complexity of modern machine learning models. In this paper, we design a new method that is suitable for high dimensional problems, under arbitrary number of Byzantine attackers. The core of our design is a direct high dimensional semi-verified mean estimation method. Our idea is to identify a subspace first. The components of mean value perpendicular to this subspace can be estimated via gradient vectors uploaded from worker machines, while the components within this subspace are estimated using auxiliary dataset. We then use our new method as the aggregator of distributed learning problems. Our theoretical analysis shows that the new method has minimax optimal statistical rates. In particular, the dependence on dimensionality is significantly improved compared with previous works.

Abstract: We study Bayesian optimization (BO) in high-dimensional and non-stationary scenarios. Existing algorithms for such scenarios typically require extensive hyperparameter tuning, which limits their practical effectiveness. We propose a framework, called BALLET, which adaptively filters for a high-confidence region of interest (ROI) as a superlevel-set of a nonparametric probabilistic model such as a Gaussian process (GP). Our approach is easy to tune, and is able to focus on local region of the optimization space that can be tackled by existing BO methods. The key idea is to use two probabilistic models: a coarse GP to identify the ROI, and a localized GP for optimization within the ROI. We show theoretically that BALLET can efficiently shrink the search space, and can exhibit a tighter regret bound than standard BO without ROI filtering. We demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of BALLET on both synthetic and real-world optimization tasks.

Abstract: In reinforcement learning (RL), rewards of states are typically considered additive, and following the Markov assumption, they are $\textit{independent}$ of states visited previously. In many important applications, such as coverage control, experiment design and informative path planning, rewards naturally have diminishing returns, i.e., their value decreases in light of similar states visited previously. To tackle this, we propose $\textit{submodular RL}$ (SubRL), a paradigm which seeks to optimize more general, non-additive (and history-dependent) rewards modelled via submodular set functions which capture diminishing returns. Unfortunately, in general, even in tabular settings, we show that the resulting optimization problem is hard to approximate. On the other hand, motivated by the success of greedy algorithms in classical submodular optimization, we propose SubPO, a simple policy gradient-based algorithm for SubRL that handles non-additive rewards by greedily maximizing marginal gains. Indeed, under some assumptions on the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP), SubPO recovers optimal constant factor approximations of submodular bandits. Moreover, we derive a natural policy gradient approach for locally optimizing SubRL instances even in large state- and action- spaces. We showcase the versatility of our approach by applying SubPO to several applications, such as biodiversity monitoring, Bayesian experiment design, informative path planning, and coverage maximization. Our results demonstrate sample efficiency, as well as scalability to high-dimensional state-action spaces.

Abstract: We present Scaff-PD, a fast and communication-efficient algorithm for distributionally robust federated learning. Our approach improves fairness by optimizing a family of distributionally robust objectives tailored to heterogeneous clients. We leverage the special structure of these objectives, and design an accelerated primal dual (APD) algorithm which uses bias corrected local steps (as in Scaffold) to achieve significant gains in communication efficiency and convergence speed. We evaluate Scaff-PD on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate its effectiveness in improving fairness and robustness while maintaining competitive accuracy. Our results suggest that Scaff-PD is a promising approach for federated learning in resource-constrained and heterogeneous settings.

Abstract: Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are an important tool in Algorithmic Recourse for addressing two questions: 1. What are the crucial factors that led to an automated prediction/decision? 2. How can these factors be changed to achieve a more favorable outcome from a user's perspective? Thus, guiding the user's interaction with AI systems by proposing easy-to-understand explanations and easy-to-attain feasible changes is essential for the trustworthy adoption and long-term acceptance of AI systems. In the literature, various methods have been proposed to generate CEs, and different quality measures have been suggested to evaluate these methods. However, the generation of CEs is usually computationally expensive, and the resulting suggestions are unrealistic and thus non-actionable. In this paper, we introduce a new method to generate CEs for a pre-trained binary classifier by first shaping the latent space of an autoencoder to be a mixture of Gaussian distributions. CEs are then generated in latent space by linear interpolation between the query sample and the centroid of the target class. We show that our method maintains the characteristics of the input sample during the counterfactual search. In various experiments, we show that the proposed method is competitive based on different quality measures on image and tabular datasets -- efficiently returns results that are closer to the original data manifold compared to three state-of-the-art methods, which are essential for realistic high-dimensional machine learning applications.

Abstract: This research article analyses and demonstrates the hidden implications for fairness of seemingly neutral data coupled with powerful technology, such as machine learning (ML), using Open Banking as an example. Open Banking has ignited a revolution in financial services, opening new opportunities for customer acquisition, management, retention, and risk assessment. However, the granularity of transaction data holds potential for harm where unnoticed proxies for sensitive and prohibited characteristics may lead to indirect discrimination. Against this backdrop, we investigate the dimensions of financial vulnerability (FV), a global concern resulting from COVID-19 and rising inflation. Specifically, we look to understand the behavioral elements leading up to FV and its impact on at-risk, disadvantaged groups through the lens of fair interpretation. Using a unique dataset from a UK FinTech lender, we demonstrate the power of fine-grained transaction data while simultaneously cautioning its safe usage. Three ML classifiers are compared in predicting the likelihood of FV, and groups exhibiting different magnitudes and forms of FV are identified via clustering to highlight the effects of feature combination. Our results indicate that engineered features of financial behavior can be predictive of omitted personal information, particularly sensitive or protected characteristics, shedding light on the hidden dangers of Open Banking data. We discuss the implications and conclude fairness via unawareness is ineffective in this new technological environment.

Abstract: The unprecedented accuracy of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) across a broad range of AI tasks has led to their widespread deployment in mobile and embedded settings. In a pursuit for high-performance and energy-efficient inference, significant research effort has been invested in the design of FPGA-based CNN accelerators. In this context, single computation engines constitute a popular approach to support diverse CNN modes without the overhead of fabric reconfiguration. Nevertheless, this flexibility often comes with significantly degraded performance on memory-bound layers and resource underutilisation due to the suboptimal mapping of certain layers on the engine's fixed configuration. In this work, we investigate the implications in terms of CNN engine design for a class of models that introduce a pre-convolution stage to decompress the weights at run time. We refer to these approaches as on-the-fly. This paper presents unzipFPGA, a novel CNN inference system that counteracts the limitations of existing CNN engines. The proposed framework comprises a novel CNN hardware architecture that introduces a weights generator module that enables the on-chip on-the-fly generation of weights, alleviating the negative impact of limited bandwidth on memory-bound layers. We further enhance unzipFPGA with an automated hardware-aware methodology that tailors the weights generation mechanism to the target CNN-device pair, leading to an improved accuracy-performance balance. Finally, we introduce an input selective processing element (PE) design that balances the load between PEs in suboptimally mapped layers. The proposed framework yields hardware designs that achieve an average of 2.57x performance efficiency gain over highly optimised GPU designs for the same power constraints and up to 3.94x higher performance density over a diverse range of state-of-the-art FPGA-based CNN accelerators.

Abstract: Learning enabled components (LECs), while critical for decision making in autonomous vehicles (AVs), are likely to make incorrect decisions when presented with samples outside of their training distributions. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors have been proposed to detect such samples, thereby acting as a safety monitor, however, both OOD detectors and LECs require heavy utilization of embedded hardware typically found in AVs. For both components, there is a tradeoff between non-functional and functional performance, and both impact a vehicle's safety. For instance, giving an OOD detector a longer response time can increase its accuracy at the expense of the LEC. We consider an LEC with binary output like an autonomous emergency braking system (AEBS) and use risk, the combination of severity and occurrence of a failure, to model the effect of both components' design parameters on each other's functional and non-functional performance, as well as their impact on system safety. We formulate a co-design methodology that uses this risk model to find the design parameters for an OOD detector and LEC that decrease risk below that of the baseline system and demonstrate it on a vision based AEBS. Using our methodology, we achieve a 42.3% risk reduction while maintaining equivalent resource utilization.

Abstract: Attention models are typically learned by optimizing one of three standard loss functions that are variously called -- soft attention, hard attention, and latent variable marginal likelihood (LVML) attention. All three paradigms are motivated by the same goal of finding two models -- a `focus' model that `selects' the right \textit{segment} of the input and a `classification' model that processes the selected segment into the target label. However, they differ significantly in the way the selected segments are aggregated, resulting in distinct dynamics and final results. We observe a unique signature of models learned using these paradigms and explain this as a consequence of the evolution of the classification model under gradient descent when the focus model is fixed. We also analyze these paradigms in a simple setting and derive closed-form expressions for the parameter trajectory under gradient flow. With the soft attention loss, the focus model improves quickly at initialization and splutters later on. On the other hand, hard attention loss behaves in the opposite fashion. Based on our observations, we propose a simple hybrid approach that combines the advantages of the different loss functions and demonstrates it on a collection of semi-synthetic and real-world datasets

Abstract: The stochastic compositional minimax problem has attracted a surge of attention in recent years since it covers many emerging machine learning models. Meanwhile, due to the emergence of distributed data, optimizing this kind of problem under the decentralized setting becomes badly needed. However, the compositional structure in the loss function brings unique challenges to designing efficient decentralized optimization algorithms. In particular, our study shows that the standard gossip communication strategy cannot achieve linear speedup for decentralized compositional minimax problems due to the large consensus error about the inner-level function. To address this issue, we developed a novel decentralized stochastic compositional gradient descent ascent with momentum algorithm to reduce the consensus error in the inner-level function. As such, our theoretical results demonstrate that it is able to achieve linear speedup with respect to the number of workers. We believe this novel algorithmic design could benefit the development of decentralized compositional optimization. Finally, we applied our methods to the imbalanced classification problem. The extensive experimental results provide evidence for the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Abstract: Network traffic monitoring using IP flows is used to handle the current challenge of analyzing encrypted network communication. Nevertheless, the packet aggregation into flow records naturally causes information loss; therefore, this paper proposes a novel flow extension for traffic features based on the time series analysis of the Single Flow Time series, i.e., a time series created by the number of bytes in each packet and its timestamp. We propose 69 universal features based on the statistical analysis of data points, time domain analysis, packet distribution within the flow timespan, time series behavior, and frequency domain analysis. We have demonstrated the usability and universality of the proposed feature vector for various network traffic classification tasks using 15 well-known publicly available datasets. Our evaluation shows that the novel feature vector achieves classification performance similar or better than related works on both binary and multiclass classification tasks. In more than half of the evaluated tasks, the classification performance increased by up to 5\%.

Abstract: Crop yield prediction typically involves the utilization of either theory-driven process-based crop growth models, which have proven to be difficult to calibrate for local conditions, or data-driven machine learning methods, which are known to require large datasets. In this work we investigate potato yield prediction using a hybrid meta-modeling approach. A crop growth model is employed to generate synthetic data for (pre)training a convolutional neural net, which is then fine-tuned with observational data. When applied in silico, our meta-modeling approach yields better predictions than a baseline comprising a purely data-driven approach. When tested on real-world data from field trials (n=303) and commercial fields (n=77), the meta-modeling approach yields competitive results with respect to the crop growth model. In the latter set, however, both models perform worse than a simple linear regression with a hand-picked feature set and dedicated preprocessing designed by domain experts. Our findings indicate the potential of meta-modeling for accurate crop yield prediction; however, further advancements and validation using extensive real-world datasets is recommended to solidify its practical effectiveness.

Abstract: This paper proposes a new combinatorial auction framework for local energy flexibility markets, which addresses the issue of prosumers' inability to bundle multiple flexibility time intervals. To solve the underlying NP-complete winner determination problems, we present a simple yet powerful heterogeneous tri-partite graph representation and design graph neural network-based models. Our models achieve an average optimal value deviation of less than 5\% from an off-the-shelf optimization tool and show linear inference time complexity compared to the exponential complexity of the commercial solver. Contributions and results demonstrate the potential of using machine learning to efficiently allocate energy flexibility resources in local markets and solving optimization problems in general.

Abstract: Current anti-money laundering (AML) systems, predominantly rule-based, exhibit notable shortcomings in efficiently and precisely detecting instances of money laundering. As a result, there has been a recent surge toward exploring alternative approaches, particularly those utilizing machine learning. Since criminals often collaborate in their money laundering endeavors, accounting for diverse types of customer relations and links becomes crucial. In line with this, the present paper introduces a graph neural network (GNN) approach to identify money laundering activities within a large heterogeneous network constructed from real-world bank transactions and business role data belonging to DNB, Norway's largest bank. Specifically, we extend the homogeneous GNN method known as the Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) to operate effectively on a heterogeneous graph. As part of this procedure, we propose a novel method for aggregating messages across different edges of the graph. Our findings highlight the importance of using an appropriate GNN architecture when combining information in heterogeneous graphs. The performance results of our model demonstrate great potential in enhancing the quality of electronic surveillance systems employed by banks to detect instances of money laundering. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first published work applying GNN on a large real-world heterogeneous network for anti-money laundering purposes.

Abstract: Prevalent in many real-world settings such as healthcare, irregular time series are challenging to formulate predictions from. It is difficult to infer the value of a feature at any given time when observations are sporadic, as it could take on a range of values depending on when it was last observed. To characterize this uncertainty we present EDICT, a strategy that learns an evidential distribution over irregular time series in continuous time. This distribution enables well-calibrated and flexible inference of partially observed features at any time of interest, while expanding uncertainty temporally for sparse, irregular observations. We demonstrate that EDICT attains competitive performance on challenging time series classification tasks and enabling uncertainty-guided inference when encountering noisy data.

Abstract: For numerical design, the development of efficient and accurate surrogate models is paramount. They allow us to approximate complex physical phenomena, thereby reducing the computational burden of direct numerical simulations. We propose INFINITY, a deep learning model that utilizes implicit neural representations (INRs) to address this challenge. Our framework encodes geometric information and physical fields into compact representations and learns a mapping between them to infer the physical fields. We use an airfoil design optimization problem as an example task and we evaluate our approach on the challenging AirfRANS dataset, which closely resembles real-world industrial use-cases. The experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance by accurately inferring physical fields throughout the volume and surface. Additionally we demonstrate its applicability in contexts such as design exploration and shape optimization: our model can correctly predict drag and lift coefficients while adhering to the equations.

Abstract: Decision-focused learning (DFL) is an emerging paradigm in machine learning which trains a model to optimize decisions, integrating prediction and optimization in an end-to-end system. This paradigm holds the promise to revolutionize decision-making in many real-world applications which operate under uncertainty, where the estimation of unknown parameters within these decision models often becomes a substantial roadblock. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DFL. It provides an in-depth analysis of the various techniques devised to integrate machine learning and optimization models introduces a taxonomy of DFL methods distinguished by their unique characteristics, and conducts an extensive empirical evaluation of these methods proposing suitable benchmark dataset and tasks for DFL. Finally, the study provides valuable insights into current and potential future avenues in DFL research.

Abstract: Optimal transport and its related problems, including optimal partial transport, have proven to be valuable tools in machine learning for computing meaningful distances between probability or positive measures. This success has led to a growing interest in defining transport-based distances that allow for comparing signed measures and, more generally, multi-channeled signals. Transport $\mathrm{L}^{p}$ distances are notable extensions of the optimal transport framework to signed and possibly multi-channeled signals. In this paper, we introduce partial transport $\mathrm{L}^{p}$ distances as a new family of metrics for comparing generic signals, benefiting from the robustness of partial transport distances. We provide theoretical background such as the existence of optimal plans and the behavior of the distance in various limits. Furthermore, we introduce the sliced variation of these distances, which allows for rapid comparison of generic signals. Finally, we demonstrate the application of the proposed distances in signal class separability and nearest neighbor classification.

Abstract: Survival analysis is an integral part of the statistical toolbox. However, while most domains of classical statistics have embraced deep learning, survival analysis only recently gained some minor attention from the deep learning community. This recent development is likely in part motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic. We aim to provide the tools needed to fully harness the potential of survival analysis in deep learning. On the one hand, we discuss how survival analysis connects to classification and regression. On the other hand, we provide technical tools. We provide a new loss function, evaluation metrics, and the first universal approximating network that provably produces survival curves without numeric integration. We show that the loss function and model outperform other approaches using a large numerical study.

Abstract: A central issue lying at the heart of online reinforcement learning (RL) is data efficiency. While a number of recent works achieved asymptotically minimal regret in online RL, the optimality of these results is only guaranteed in a ``large-sample'' regime, imposing enormous burn-in cost in order for their algorithms to operate optimally. How to achieve minimax-optimal regret without incurring any burn-in cost has been an open problem in RL theory. We settle this problem for the context of finite-horizon inhomogeneous Markov decision processes. Specifically, we prove that a modified version of Monotonic Value Propagation (MVP), a model-based algorithm proposed by \cite{zhang2020reinforcement}, achieves a regret on the order of (modulo log factors) \begin{equation*} \min\big\{ \sqrt{SAH^3K}, \,HK \big\}, \end{equation*} where $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, $H$ is the planning horizon, and $K$ is the total number of episodes. This regret matches the minimax lower bound for the entire range of sample size $K\geq 1$, essentially eliminating any burn-in requirement. It also translates to a PAC sample complexity (i.e., the number of episodes needed to yield $\varepsilon$-accuracy) of $\frac{SAH^3}{\varepsilon^2}$ up to log factor, which is minimax-optimal for the full $\varepsilon$-range. Further, we extend our theory to unveil the influences of problem-dependent quantities like the optimal value/cost and certain variances. The key technical innovation lies in the development of a new regret decomposition strategy and a novel analysis paradigm to decouple complicated statistical dependency -- a long-standing challenge facing the analysis of online RL in the sample-hungry regime.

Abstract: Mesh-based numerical solvers are an important part in many design tool chains. However, accurate simulations like computational fluid dynamics are time and resource consuming which is why surrogate models are employed to speed-up the solution process. Machine Learning based surrogate models on the other hand are fast in predicting approximate solutions but often lack accuracy. Thus, the development of the predictor in a predictor-corrector approach is the focus here, where the surrogate model predicts a flow field and the numerical solver corrects it. This paper scales a state-of-the-art surrogate model from the domain of graph-based machine learning to industry-relevant mesh sizes of a numerical flow simulation. The approach partitions and distributes the flow domain to multiple GPUs and provides halo exchange between these partitions during training. The utilized graph neural network operates directly on the numerical mesh and is able to preserve complex geometries as well as all other properties of the mesh. The proposed surrogate model is evaluated with an application on a three dimensional turbomachinery setup and compared to a traditionally trained distributed model. The results show that the traditional approach produces superior predictions and outperforms the proposed surrogate model. Possible explanations, improvements and future directions are outlined.

Abstract: Idealized first-principles models of chemical plants can be inaccurate. An alternative is to fit a Machine Learning (ML) model directly to plant sensor data. We use a structured approach: Each unit within the plant gets represented by one ML model. After fitting the models to the data, the models are connected into a flowsheet-like directed graph. We find that for smaller plants, this approach works well, but for larger plants, the complex dynamics arising from large and nested cycles in the flowsheet lead to instabilities in the cycle solver. We analyze this problem in depth and show that it is not merely a specialized concern but rather a more pervasive challenge that will likely occur whenever ML is applied to larger plants. To address this problem, we present a way to fine-tune ML models such that solving cycles with the usual methods becomes robust again.

Abstract: Any autonomous controller will be unsafe in some situations. The ability to quantitatively identify when these unsafe situations are about to occur is crucial for drawing timely human oversight in, e.g., freight transportation applications. In this work, we demonstrate that the true criticality of an agent's situation can be robustly defined as the mean reduction in reward given some number of random actions. Proxy criticality metrics that are computable in real-time (i.e., without actually simulating the effects of random actions) can be compared to the true criticality, and we show how to leverage these proxy metrics to generate safety margins, which directly tie the consequences of potentially incorrect actions to an anticipated loss in overall performance. We evaluate our approach on learned policies from APE-X and A3C within an Atari environment, and demonstrate how safety margins decrease as agents approach failure states. The integration of safety margins into programs for monitoring deployed agents allows for the real-time identification of potentially catastrophic situations.

Abstract: Multivariate time series classification is a rapidly growing research field with practical applications in finance, healthcare, engineering, and more. The complexity of classifying multivariate time series data arises from its high dimensionality, temporal dependencies, and varying lengths. This paper introduces a novel ensemble classifier called RED CoMETS (Random Enhanced Co-eye for Multivariate Time Series), which addresses these challenges. RED CoMETS builds upon the success of Co-eye, an ensemble classifier specifically designed for symbolically represented univariate time series, and extends its capabilities to handle multivariate data. The performance of RED CoMETS is evaluated on benchmark datasets from the UCR archive, where it demonstrates competitive accuracy when compared to state-of-the-art techniques in multivariate settings. Notably, it achieves the highest reported accuracy in the literature for the 'HandMovementDirection' dataset. Moreover, the proposed method significantly reduces computation time compared to Co-eye, making it an efficient and effective choice for multivariate time series classification.

Abstract: Gradient clipping is a commonly used technique to stabilize the training process of neural networks. A growing body of studies has shown that gradient clipping is a promising technique for dealing with the heavy-tailed behavior that emerged in stochastic optimization as well. While gradient clipping is significant, its theoretical guarantees are scarce. Most theoretical guarantees only provide an in-expectation analysis and only focus on optimization performance. In this paper, we provide high probability analysis in the non-convex setting and derive the optimization bound and the generalization bound simultaneously for popular stochastic optimization algorithms with gradient clipping, including stochastic gradient descent and its variants of momentum and adaptive stepsizes. With the gradient clipping, we study a heavy-tailed assumption that the gradients only have bounded $\alpha$-th moments for some $\alpha \in (1, 2]$, which is much weaker than the standard bounded second-moment assumption. Overall, our study provides a relatively complete picture for the theoretical guarantee of stochastic optimization algorithms with clipping.