Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST)

Abstract: The analysis of market correlations is crucial for optimal portfolio selection of correlated assets, but their memory effects have often been neglected. In this work, we analyse the mean market correlation of the S&P500 which corresponds to the main market mode in principle component analysis. We fit a generalised Langevin equation (GLE) to the data whose memory kernel implies that there is a significant memory effect in the market correlation ranging back at least three trading weeks. The memory kernel improves the forecasting accuracy of the GLE compared to models without memory and hence, such a memory effect has to be taken into account for optimal portfolio selection to minimise risk or for predicting future correlations. Moreover, a Bayesian resilience estimation provides further evidence for non-Markovianity in the data and suggests the existence of a hidden slow time scale that operates on much slower times than the observed daily market data. Assuming that such a slow time scale exists, our work supports previous research on the existence of locally stable market states.