Qiliang Fang, Takashi J. Moriya, Keiichi Maeda

The red supergiant (RSG) problem refers to the observed dearth of luminous RSGs identified as progenitors of Type II supernovae (SNe II) in pre-SN imaging. Understanding this phenomenon is essential for studying pre-SN mass loss and the explodability of core-collapse SNe. In this work, we re-assess the RSG problem using late-phase spectroscopy of a sample of 50 SNe II. The [O I] $\lambda\lambda$6300,6363 emission in the spectra is employed to infer the zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass distribution of the progenitors, which is then transformed into a luminosity distribution via an observation-calibrated mass-luminosity relation. The resulting luminosity distribution reveals an upper cutoff at log $L/L_{\odot} = 5.21^{+0.09}_{-0.07}$ dex, and the RSG problem is statistically significant at the 2$\sigma$ to 3$\sigma$ level. Assuming single RSG progenitors that follow the mass-luminosity relation of KEPLER models, this luminosity cutoff corresponds to an upper ZAMS mass limit of $20.63^{+2.42}_{-1.64}$ $M_{\odot}$. Comparisons with independent measurements, including pre-SN imaging and plateau-phase light curve modeling, consistently yield an upper ZAMS mass limit below about 25 $M_{\odot}$, with a significance level of 1-3$\sigma$. While each individual method provides only marginal significance, the consistency across multiple methodologies suggests that the lack of luminous RSG progenitors may reflect a genuine physical problem. Finally, we discuss several scenarios to account for this issue should it be confirmed as a true manifestation of stellar physics.