Luyao Zhang, Fan Zhang

Blockchain enables peer-to-peer transactions in cyberspace without a trusted third party. The rapid growth of Ethereum and smart contract blockchains generally calls for well-designed Transaction Fee Mechanisms (TFMs) to allocate limited storage and computation resources. However, existing research on TFMs must consider the waiting time for transactions, which is essential for computer security and economic efficiency. Integrating data from the Ethereum blockchain and memory pool (mempool), we explore how two types of events affect transaction latency. First, we apply regression discontinuity design (RDD) to study the causal inference of the Merge, the most recent significant upgrade of Ethereum. Our results show that the Merge significantly reduces the long waiting time, network loads, and market congestion. In addition, we verify our results' robustness by inspecting other compounding factors, such as censorship and unobserved delays of transactions via private changes. Second, examining three major protocol changes during the merge, we identify block interval shortening as the most plausible cause for our empirical results. Furthermore, in a mathematical model, we show block interval as a unique mechanism design choice for EIP1559 TFM to achieve better security and efficiency, generally applicable to the market congestion caused by demand surges. Finally, we apply time series analysis to research the interaction of Non-Fungible token (NFT) drops and market congestion using Facebook Prophet, an open-source algorithm for generating time-series models. Our study identified NFT drops as a unique source of market congestion -- holiday effects -- beyond trend and season effects. Finally, we envision three future research directions of TFM.