Christian Ecker, Niko Jokela, Matti Järvinen

We present a probabilistic model for the QCD critical endpoint (CEP) and the equation of state (EOS) at $\beta$-equilibrium, constrained by neutron-star observations. Using a hybrid framework that combines the holographic V-QCD model with an effective van der Waals description of nuclear matter, we generate a large ensemble of EOSs incorporating nuclear theory uncertainties. Constraining this ensemble with neutron-star mass-radius data and tidal deformability measurements from gravitational waves, we identify a strong first-order deconfinement transition at zero temperature, with a transition strength of $\Delta n_{\rm{PT}}/n_0 = 3.75^{+0.70}_{-0.53}$ and onset density $n_{\rm{PT}}/n_0 = 4.9^{+1.33}_{-1.17}$. The resulting posterior yields $95\%$ credible intervals for the CEP location: $\mu_{\rm{crit}} = 626^{+90}_{-179}\,\rm{MeV}$, $T_{\rm{crit}} = 119^{+14}_{-6}\,\rm{MeV}$.